Top MPs at risk in shake-up of English constituencies

 

There will be 50 fewer MPs after the next election

Some of the most high-profile MPs in Parliament face seeing their seats disappear as part of a far-reaching shake-up of the Commons map in 2015.

Ken Clarke, Chris Huhne and Tessa Jowell are among those affected by Boundary Commission plans for England and Northern Ireland.
The proposals are part of a move to cut the number of MPs by 50 to 600 by the next general election.
Details for Wales and Scotland will be published at a later date.
Under plans approved by Parliament in February, England, Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland will all see their parliamentary representation reduced after the next election, due in May 2015.
The government believes a smaller Commons will lower the cost of politics, saving £12m, while the system will be fairer as the number of registered voters in each constituency will be more uniform.
Independent recommendations But some Labour MPs have accused the coalition of gerrymandering while some Lib Dems are reported to be unhappy about the prospect of losing seats in the shake-up - agreed as a package earlier this year in combination with May's referendum on the voting system.
The Boundary Commission for England has given details of all 502 constituencies, broken down into nine English regions, in which elections are likely to be held in 2015. It is launching a two year consultation into the proposals.
The full details of allocated English seats, compared to 2010, are:

• South East England: 83 seats (-1)
• North West England: 68 (-7)
• London - 68 seats (-5)
• Eastern England: 56 seats (-2)
• Yorkshire and Humber: 50 seats (-4)
• West Midlands: 54 seats (-5)
• South West England: 53 seats (-2)
• East Midlands: 44 seats (-2)
• North East England: 26 seats (-3)

Senior figures from all parties are likely to be affected by the changes.
Justice Secretary Ken Clarke's existing Rushcliffe constituency in Nottinghamshire would cease to exist in its current form under the plans.
Its voters would split between four proposed seats - Broxtowe, Coalville and Keyworth, Newark and Nottingham South and West Bridgford.
Chancellor George Osborne's Tatton constituency in Cheshire would also disappear, with its voters divided between the newly proposed seat of Northwich and existing Tory-held Macclesfield.
Labour fights Shadow Cabinet members Ed Balls and Hilary Benn could face a fight for one seat if their constituencies in West Yorkshire are partly amalgamated.
Mr Benn's Leeds Central constituency would effectively be abolished, with 45% of its voters transferred to the new constituency of Leeds South and Outwood.

MPS WHOSE SEATS ARE UNDER THREAT

• George Osborne, Ken Clarke, Hugh Robertson (Tories)
• Ed Balls, Hilary Benn, Tessa Jowell, Chuka Umunna (Labour)
• Chris Huhne, Vince Cable, Tim Farron (Lib Dems)
• Caroline Lucas (Green Party)

The shadow chancellor's existing Morley and Outwood constituency would also be redrawn, with more than half of its existing voters transferring to Leeds South and Outwood.

As part of major changes in London, the Dulwich and West Norwood seat of former Cabinet minister Tessa Jowell would disappear and be split into three while frontbencher Chuka Umunna would see his Streatham seat divided up four ways.
Under the outline proposals, Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg's Sheffield Hallam seat will be redesignated as Sheffield West and Penistone.
The deputy prime minister is expected to face a strong Labour challenge at the 2015 poll.
Other Lib Dems who could be under pressure include Chris Huhne, Vince Cable and Tim Farron.
Energy Secretary Mr Huhne's Eastleigh constituency would be split in two under the plans, with nearly half its voters transferring to the newly proposed Hedge End and Hamble seat.
Business Secretary Vince Cable, MP for Twickenham, could potentially find himself up against millionaire Conservative MP Zac Goldsmith, MP for Richmond Park, if they both choose to fight the newly proposed Richmond and Twickenham seat.
Options for MPs A handful of MPs face the prospect of their existing constituencies being divided up five ways. These include Tories Philip Davies (MP for Shipley) and Nigel Adams (MP for Selby and Ainsty).
Mr Cameron, MP for Witney, and Labour leader Ed Miliband, MP for Doncaster North, are among 77 people whose constituencies would be unaffected by the changes.

PROPOSED SEAT ALLOCATIONS

• England: 502 (-31)
• Scotland: 52 (-7)
• Wales: 30 (-10)
• Northern Ireland: 16 (-2)

Others whose seats remain wholly intact include Home Secretary Theresa May, MP for Maidenhead and Culture Secretary Jeremy Hunt, MP for South West Surrey.

MPs whose constituencies are set to be effectively abolished will have to find another seat to contest if they wish to remain in Parliament, leading to a fierce scramble in the run-up to the next election.
Options open to them include applying for selection in a new seat whose boundaries closely resemble their old one or going up against another MP for the right to represent a different seat.
Another option for MPs is to succeed any MP who chooses to retire and not stand again in 2015.
'Clear rules' MPs will be able to "appeal" against the provisional changes during a 12-week consultation taking place between now and December.
The Boundary Commission will publish revised proposals next year which will also be subject to exhaustive consultation before finally being submitted to Parliament for approval by October 2013.
It is encouraging the public to engage with the process and give their feedback on its proposals - including the names of constituencies - during a series of open hearings in October and November.

THE PROPOSED CHANGES

• The number of seats will fall from 650 to 600
• Almost all constituencies will have between 72,810 and 80,473 registered voters
• Three constituencies - Western Isles, Shetland and Orkney and Isle of Wight - will be excluded from this quota due to their distinctive geography
• Isle of Wight gains second MP
• Final proposals to be submitted to Parliament for approval by October 2013

• Belfast seat to go in NI shake-up

"Parliament has set clear rules on what we can and can't do when it comes to developing our initial proposals," said the Commission's secretary Simon James.

"The Commission was given clear principles and from that starting point we have found a solution that we think best meets Parliament's rules.
"Now we want to know what people think of our initial proposals."
Details of proposed changes to Scottish constituencies will be published next month while the likely make-up of seats in Wales will become clear in January.
One election expert said the political outcome of the shake-up would be to reduce but not eliminate the existing "bias" in the electoral map against the Conservatives, created by population shifts and the number of constituencies in England compared to Scotland and Wales.
Professor John Curtice, from the University of Strathclyde, said Conservative seats tended to be larger and turnout higher, meaning their MPs needed to gain more votes to get elected than their Labour counterparts and the party achieve a higher share of the vote to secure a majority.